Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s 2019 Policy Address is scheduled for next Wednesday, 16 October. The speech will be one of the most intensely scrutinised ever. Hong Kong is in the midst of a political crisis that should be solved by political means. Also the city has boiled over with frustration and anger because of the inequalities of life here, the corrupt favouring of a few super-rich families, the impossibility for ordinary people to own their own home, the high cost of living and other ills. If Carrie Lam does not come up with bold solutions in next Wednesday’s address, she never will. She will be lambasted on all sides and the city will resound with calls for her to be a one-term Chief Executive.
Ms Lam is scheduled to speak in a Legislative Council chamber spruced up at a cost of $40 million after protesters trashed it in July, breaking 60 glass doors and panes and spraying graffiti on the walls. She has talked, however, of other means to deliver the address if there are too many demonstrators outside Legco.
Setting aside the human costs of the 2019 Riots – shootings, injuries, arrests and a frightened populace – for the moment, the economic consequences of her Government’s disastrous tabling of an extradition bill, are already enormous:
- Retail sales in August dropped 23 per cent compared to the same month in 2018, according to the Hong Kong Retail Management Association. “The magnitude of the decline is incredible,” Chairwoman Annie Tse said. It was the steepest decline in a single month on record.
- Passenger numbers on flights into Hong Kong fell 38 per cent year on year, according to Cathay Pacific Commercial Officer Ronald Lam. Outbound passenger numbers dropped 12 per cent. “Overall tourist arrivals in August were nearly half what they usually are,” Mr Lam said.
- HKSE market capitalisation has dropped by $300 billion since July 1.
- A sharp uptick in Singapore’s foreign currency deposits in July and August signals that as much as US$4 billion fled Hong Kong in July and August, Goldman Sachs said.
Mike Rowse is one of the smartest former Government officials still resident in Hong Kong. Here are excerpts from what he has written in the South China Morning Post:
“The government needs to seriously ask itself, why four months after the troubles began, so many Hong Kong people from all walks of life continue to support the protesters despite their violent attacks on police and repeated vandalism of public assets. This is not normal behaviour and is in fact completely out of character for the vast majority.
“There are three underlying problem areas which existed before the ill-fated extradition legislation. They are: disappointment at the slow pace of political reform and progress towards universal suffrage; outrage at the enormous and increasing disparity of wealth, crystallised by the absurd property price levels; and friction between Hong Kongers and mainlanders during increasing social interaction.”
More, briefly, from Mike on the current main issues:
Universal suffrage – “Now is precisely the right time to be seen to be moving forward. Most people will probably accept a serious declaration of intent. They will not be persuaded by a complete and indefinite standstill.”
Independent commission of inquiry – “In any political disaster on the scale of this one, it is quite normal in the Hong Kong system to set up such an inquiry. Get people under oath in front of a judge and let’s get to the bottom of it. We need to send an urgent message to all involved: you will be held to account for your actions.”
Arrested protesters – They “must quickly face court. If that means a crash programme of hiring more magistrates from other common-law jurisdictions, and night courts, then so be it.”
Ms Lam, if you do not come up with bold, imaginative, far-reaching proposals to mend a broken Hong Kong in your policy address next week – even if it means disobeying your Beijing bosses – you do not deserve to be our city’s leader. We will want you gone.
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