“The Fragile Dragon” by Ker Gibbs
The Chinese Communist Party, despite in the last 50 years enabling 800 million people to rise out of extreme poverty and its economy to become the world’s second largest, has a shaky grip on power, according to a new book. “The Fragile Dragon” offers a clear-eyed examination of China’s rise and its hidden vulnerabilities. The CCP’s obsession with national security is a clear indicator of its insecurity.
Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Commander of NATO, wrote this comment about “The Fragile Dragon”*: The book “offers a deeply informed examination of China as both a formidable competitor and a profoundly vulnerable system. It reminds us that power built on control, fear and opacity carries inherent limits. Nowhere is this clearer than Taiwan, where Beijing’s inability to tolerate a free Chinese society reveals the fragility beneath its strength. As the United States navigates an era of heightened risk with China . . . this book is essential reading.”
At the book’s beginning author Ker D. Gibbs writes, “The CCP plays a central, all-encompassing, and so far as we can see now, long-lasting role.” He pays tribute to the earlier book, “The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers – A Revelatory Inside Look at the CCP’s Grip on Power”** by Richard McGregor. “First published in 2012, I have yet to find a more detailed and insightful description of the CCP and its inner workings. Mr McGregor explains that in order to understand the level and extent of the party’s control over China, one would have to imagine a world in which the head of America’s Republican Party also had the power to appoint the heads of the New York Times, ExxonMobil and JP Morgan.”
Ker Gibbs is the former head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai
“China may seem powerful, like a dragon, but its often pugnacious posture masks deep vulnerabilities,” Gibbs writes. Vast economic success can be seen virtually everywhere in China, “yet beneath this surface lie structural weaknesses: a lack of institutional diversity and transparency that erodes confidence, demographic decline that is already shrinking the population and massive local government debt that constrains flexibility. The challenges are mounting.” A property market crisis, weak consumer spending, banking system fragility and growing inequality between the rich and the poor. China’s political and economic systems have been shown to be more stable than those in the west — witness the 2008 financial crisis. “Yet China’s newfound confidence masked its own vulnerabilities. The very mechanisms that Beijing portrayed as sources of strength — state power, insulation and central control — also revealed the system’s deepest weakness: a dependence on control itself, a persistent fear of exposure to the forces that make open economies more resilient over time and an unwillingness to face problems publicly and deal with them.”
After Xi Jinping took power in 2012, Gibbs writes, “the result of the party’s pursuit of power was fragility disguised as strength. Optimism faded as state control increased, and entrepreneurs found less space to manoeuvre between state-owned enterprises that were growing in size and power.” A post-Covid boom was predicted, but it didn’t happen. “Sentiment matters. Ordinary people had lost confidence and delayed purchases, while investors were reluctant to back projects even when the numbers suggested solid returns. Without optimism, every purchase and investment seemed like a risk.” (Readers trying to understand why the HK stock market has also stalled, may realise this has go a lot to do with it.)
“China’s treatment of dissent — whether from foreign business leaders, domestic lawyers, journalists, or anyone else — reveals a political system that sees vulnerability wherever it cannot exert full control. The party fears that independent voices, civil society, or competing identities might erode the party’s authority. The CCP has trapped itself between a desire for global influence and a political system that has trouble tolerating openness.”
“Sadly . . . China is still a mysterious land. In part this is because the party is deliberately opaque. The leadership makes decisions behind doors closed to outsiders, which includes the Chinese people. China is nothing like us. That doesn’t make it wrong, or bad; just different.
“China has changed, even in the relatively short time since I first arrived. In 1985 Chinese people knew little about the world beyond their borders, or how to run a business. They were curious and optimistic and eager to cooperate with the West. China was opening up and they were experiencing more freedom than they had even thought possible, and there was every reason to assume the country would continue on that trajectory. But China is a complicated place that changes fast. Its history has never been smooth, and the current period is no exception.”
*“The Fragile Dragon” by Ker Gibbs. Published by Earnshaw Books Ltd 2026. ISBN-10:9888904965, ISBN-13:‎978-9888904969
**”The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers – A Revelatory Inside Look at the CCP’s Grip on Power” by Richard McGregor . Published by Harper Perennial 2012. ISBN-10:0061708763 ISBN-13:‎ 978-0061708763
The publisher of “The Fragile Dragon” is Earnshaw Books based in Hong Kong. Founded in 2007 by CEO Graham Earnshaw, the company is considered one of the most notable independent publishers in Asia. Under Mr Earnshaw’s energetic direction, Earnshaw Books is quite prolific, turning out titles on Asia history, biography, memoirs, historical fiction and non-fiction, more than 200 published so far.
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