Dear Protestors
Do you want the People’s Liberation Army patrolling our streets? They won’t have rubber bullets and beanbags in their guns. Would you like to see the Chinese Communist Party crush Hong Kong? Because that is likely to happen if you do not moderate your behaviour.
Arson, attacking and injuring police officers, besieging police stations, throwing rocks into officers’ quarters, disrupting an international airport, blocking road tunnels, stopping MTR trains. . . All of this and more happened yesterday. 5 August may have been the day that caused the Central Government to act. Certainly our rulers in Peking will move on Hong Kong if the scale of the troubles we saw yesterday continues.
Are you Protestors daring the Party to send in the troops? Stop and think, you young fools.
Yesterday you forced our police to retreat. You outnumbered them and outfought them in at least one location. Take their uniforms off and the police officers are the same sort of people as you. The force numbers about 30,000. How many officers can they deploy on the streets? Three shifts a day. Police stations have to be manned. Serious crimes have to be investigated. Perhaps at any one time the police can put only 5,000 or 6,000 officers on the streets. With demonstrations, strikes, arson, violent attacks and vandalism under way at multiple locations across the city the force can be overwhelmed.
Hemingway said write about the things you love and the things you hate. In other words write passionately. Well, we love Hong Kong and we hate what is happening to it. All because you immature idiots have gone too far. (And the Government has royally screwed up.)
You are collectively giving the Central Government the finger. You are taunting the Party. Where will this lead? How much loss of face in the eyes of the world will they tolerate?
The PLA Garrison totals about 6,000. That is not enough strength to stabilise Hong Kong. Something like 200,000 soldiers can be expected, if that dark day comes, to drive across the border in trucks and armoured cars, even tanks. The Central Government will be making plans for this now. These soldiers will be armed with real bullets. It is a regrettable fact that Hong Kong people harbour a lot of animosity towards mainlanders. A percentage of local people will attack the PLA officers. They will throw rocks, bricks, steels bars, anything heavy they can lay their hands on from buildings onto soldiers’ heads. Some fools will try to fight the troops on the streets. Many will be shot. In Emily Lau’s words, the streets will run with “rivers of blood”.
Young Protestors, when you first started your demonstrations they were peaceful. We were proud of you. All around the world people saw on their TV and computer screens what marvellous, well-behaved youngsters we have in Hong Kong. You forced Carrie Lam to declare her misbegotten extradition bill “dead”. You won. It was People Power at its finest.
But now, Protestors, you must draw back from the brink. If you carry on violently disrupting the entire city, the People’s Liberation Army is likely to occupy our streets. You have been warned. By the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office in Peking last week and by PLA Garrison commander Major-General Chen Daoxiang a few days ago. There will be a press briefing by the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office in Peking at 2:30 pm today. It will be interesting.
In The Guardian a few hours ago Simon Tisdall summed up the situation well: The unrest “has evolved into a broad-based, fully-fledged challenge to Beijing’s rule. It is threatening to undermine China’s control of the former British colony and President Xi’s control of China. His quasi-dictatorial authority is on the line. A critical turning point is in sight.”
If the army does cross the border and come out of its local bases, we believe it will try to do the minimum to stabilise Hong Kong, backing our police. The Party wants Hong Kong to go back to its peaceful, prosperous ways showcasing its One-Country-Two-Systems policy. How much blood is spilled, should the troops arrive on our streets, will depend on the seriousness and length of any violent reaction from Hong Kong people.
Young Protestors, stop. Before it is too late. From the moment the troops enter Hong Kong, your city will never be the same again.
A shipping company chief executive speaking on RTHK today said Hong Kong appears to have serious difficulties ahead in the short term (para-phrasing) but in the long term wise heads will always be optimistic about Hong Kong. He’s right. But the Troubles must stop now.
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