Cargo aircraft crash analysed by former airline captain

A former airline captain, who doesn’t want to be named, commented, “The touchdown speed seems low. Coming from that part of the world, it was probably full of dates and flowers…

And with the headwind, the airspeed would have been around 150 kts – about right for a jumbo from memory.

“The wind was 030/15 which means, if they lost steering control, the natural tendency is for the aircraft to weathercock which would explain the left turn.

^{FlightRadar screenshot of the incident; speed in knots}

“The high-speed runway exits are on the other side and further down from where the aircraft turned.

“Pretty old ex-passenger jet – could have been structural failure.

“If a heavy landing broke the jet in two, one of the bits would be on the runway at or near the touchdown point, not in the water immediately behind the aircraft.

“I suspect the nose damage is from the sea wall and the broken fuselage from the nose-down moment when it went off the edge.”